Why there is no Rainbow Chart here
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is a log regression whose bands were redrawn after price broke below all of them in 2022 — its own author calls it a meme with no scientific basis. A model that gets re-fitted every time it fails can never be wrong, which means it can never be right either. The indicators on this site are organized by how much they avoid that trap: the on-chain tier uses measured economic quantities with no fitted parameters at all; the statistical tier uses fixed, public conventions that cannot repaint; and where we do include fitted models (Power Law, Pi Cycle), the fit parameters and their weaknesses are printed on the page.
One warning that applies to everything
Bitcoin has existed through roughly four market cycles. Every threshold on this site — every “historic top zone,” every “capitulation band” — is calibrated on a sample of about four events. Institutional adoption, ETFs, and declining volatility are actively changing the market's structure, and several indicators already show their extremes compressing cycle over cycle. Use these charts as thermometers for current conditions, never as crystal balls.