What this chart shows
Plot Bitcoin's price on a log axis against the log of its age in days, and the eleven-year scatter is remarkably straight. This page fits that line by ordinary least squares on the full history — recomputed every time you load it — and draws corridor bands at the 2nd and 98th percentile of the residuals.
How to read it
The gauge shows where today's price sits within the historical residual distribution: near the floor has historically meant late-bear conditions, near the ceiling late-bull. The fitted exponent b (shown in the legend) implies price has grown as a power of time rather than exponentially — i.e., growth that decelerates.
Limitations — this model is in the same family as the Rainbow Chart
Be clear-eyed: this is curve fitting on price alone, exactly the technique behind the Rainbow Chart, just executed with standard statistics instead of hand-drawn bands. The high R² is largely an artifact of regressing a trending series and says nothing about out-of-sample predictive power. Because the fit is recomputed on every load, the corridor quietly shifts as new data arrives — the same “repainting” problem that makes such models unfalsifiable. We publish the fit parameters and date on every load so you can at least see it move.
Use it as a compressed visual summary of history. Do not use it to project price targets; the dashed extension exists to show what the model asserts, not what will happen.