What this chart shows
The 200-week (≈1,400-day) moving average is Bitcoin's slowest commonly-watched trend line — slow enough that it has never declined for long in the asset's history. The price line is colored by the average's growth over the trailing four weeks: violet when the long-term trend is barely rising, through amber to red when it is compounding fast.
How to read it
Two separate observations live on this chart. First, the amber line itself: the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bear markets all terminated at or near the 200WMA, making it the most-cited “floor” in Bitcoin analysis. Second, the coloring: cycle tops have historically occurred while the 200WMA was heating up rapidly, and accumulation phases while it cooled toward zero growth.
Limitations
“Every bottom hit the 200WMA” is induction from three bear markets — and 2022 actually pierced it by ~25% for several months. A long enough sideways market would flatten the average until price crosses it routinely, as happens in mature assets. The floor is a historical pattern, not a mechanical support level; nothing enforces it.