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Every indicator and tool on this site has a companion long-form article covering the formula, real historical data, and honest limitations — written for search and deep reading.
On-chain · cost basis
Bitcoin Exchange Netflow: What Coins Moving On/Off Exchanges Really Means
Exchange netflow tracks whether more bitcoin is moving onto exchanges (often read as selling pressure) or off exchanges (often read as accumulation). Here's how it's measured and its real, narrower limitations.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves: Why Falling Balances Get Called Bullish (And the Limits)
Exchange reserves track the total bitcoin balance held across known exchange wallets. Here's why the multi-year downtrend gets read as accumulation, and what it can't actually tell you.
Bitcoin NUPL Explained: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss and Market Cycle Zones
NUPL measures the share of Bitcoin's market cap that represents unrealized profit across all holders. Here's the formula, the classic zone framework (capitulation to euphoria), and why zones aren't triggers.
Bitcoin Realized Price Explained: What It Means When Price Falls Below It
Realized price is the aggregate cost basis of every bitcoin in circulation. Here's how it's calculated, why it acts as a historical floor, and what happens on the rare occasions price trades under it.
What Is Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score? How to Read It (With Historical Extremes)
MVRV Z-Score measures how far Bitcoin's market cap has stretched above its realized cap, in standard deviations. Here's the formula, what past extremes looked like, and its real limitations.
Production cost
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons: Miner Capitulation Signal Explained
Hash Ribbons tracks when Bitcoin's network hash rate is falling fast enough to signal miner capitulation. Here's the two-moving-average crossover logic and what a real hash rate number looks like.
Bitcoin Security Budget: What Happens When Block Rewards Run Out
Security budget is the total revenue paying for Bitcoin's mining security, and the share of it coming from fees versus issuance. Here's why this ratio matters for Bitcoin's long-term security model.
Puell Multiple Explained: Miner Revenue as a Bitcoin Cycle Indicator
Puell Multiple compares daily miner revenue to its own one-year average. Here's the formula, why miner economics matter for cycle timing, and how it's actually computed from free data.
Statistical
Bitcoin 200-Week Moving Average: The Line That Has Never Broken (Yet)
Bitcoin's 200-week moving average has held as a floor through every prior bear market. Here's how it's calculated, why it's watched so closely, and what 'never broken' actually means statistically.
Mayer Multiple Explained: Bitcoin Price vs Its 200-Day Average
Mayer Multiple divides Bitcoin's price by its 200-day moving average. Here's the simple formula, the historical band Trace Mayer originally proposed, and why simplicity is both its strength and limitation.
Statistical · fitted
Bitcoin Power Law Explained: Why a Straight Line on a Log-Log Chart Is Controversial
The Bitcoin Power Law model fits price against time on a log-log chart. Here's the math, why it looked compelling for years, and the real methodological objections to treating it as a forecast.
Is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Legit? What Its Own Creator Says
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart colors a log regression into bands from 'fire sale' to 'maximum bubble.' Here's how the bands are actually drawn, why they've been redrawn before, and what the chart's own creator has said about it.
Metcalfe's Law and Bitcoin: Valuing Network Effects by Active Addresses
Metcalfe's Law says a network's value scales with the square of its users. Here's how it's applied to Bitcoin using active addresses, and the real problems with using addresses as a proxy for users.
Pi Cycle Top Indicator Explained: The Moving-Average Cross That Called Every Top
Pi Cycle Top compares a 111-day moving average to 2x a 350-day moving average. Here's why the specific multiple was chosen, its real historical track record, and why a small sample changes the confidence you should place in it.
Stock-to-Flow Model: Why It Failed and What That Teaches About Bitcoin Models
Stock-to-Flow modeled Bitcoin's price as a function of scarcity alone. Here's the formula, why it made specific hard predictions, and exactly how and when those predictions broke down.
Tools
Bitcoin Composite Cycle Score: Combining 8 Indicators Into One Number
The Composite score aggregates multiple Bitcoin indicators, weighted by methodological confidence, into one 0-100 reading. Here's how the weighting works, why it's different from the Market Dashboard's percentile approach, and its real limits.
Bitcoin DCA Calculator: What Regular Monthly Buys Since Any Start Date Would Be Worth Today
Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin removes the need to pick a single entry price. Here's how the backtest works, why start date still matters enormously, and what the strategy does and doesn't smooth out.
Bitcoin Drawdown History: Every Major Crash From ATH, Ranked
Bitcoin has fallen more than 80% from its all-time high multiple times. Here's how drawdown is calculated, why percentage terms make different eras comparable, and the real historical numbers.
Bitcoin Halving Cycles Compared: 2012 vs 2016 vs 2020 vs 2024
Every Bitcoin halving cycle normalized to its own halving date, overlaid on one chart. Here's how the peak multiples have shrunk each cycle, and why that pattern isn't a template for what comes next.
Bitcoin Lump Sum vs DCA: Which Actually Wins, With Real Numbers
The lump-sum-vs-DCA debate has a real answer for any specific historical window, computed from actual price data. Here's why the answer depends entirely on which period you pick, and how to check it yourself.
Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Explained: Risk-Adjusted Returns vs Stocks and Gold
Sharpe Ratio combines Bitcoin's returns and volatility into a single risk-adjusted number. Here's the formula, why it's built from this site's own return and volatility data rather than a new source, and how to read the extreme swings.
Bitcoin Supply Schedule: Why Only 21 Million Will Ever Exist
Bitcoin's 21 million cap is a fixed protocol rule, not a market prediction. Here's how the issuance curve actually works, why it flattens for over a century, and why this is the one truly certain line on this whole site.
Bitcoin Volatility History: Is It Really Becoming a 'Mature Asset'?
Bitcoin's rolling volatility has trended down over its history. Here's how it's calculated, the real multi-year compression pattern, and why 'less volatile than before' doesn't mean 'no longer volatile.'
Bitcoin Seasonality: Is There Really a 'Best Month' to Buy?
Bitcoin's monthly return heatmap shows which months have historically done best and worst. Here's why a short trading history makes strong seasonality claims hard to trust.
When Is the Next Bitcoin Halving? Exact Countdown and Why the Date Isn't Fixed
Bitcoin's next halving is estimated around block 1,050,000. Here's why the exact date can't be known in advance, how the estimate is calculated, and what actually happens to miners when it hits.