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Pi Cycle Top Indicator Explained: The Moving-Average Cross That Called Every Top

Chainmeter · ~2 min read

TL;DR

Pi Cycle Top flags a cross when the 111-day moving average rises to meet 2x the 350-day moving average (the '2x' and the two windows roughly approximate pi's ratio, hence the name). It has crossed near the top of every prior completed bull cycle, a track record of exactly three or four instances.

The formula and where the name comes from

Pi Cycle Top tracks two simple moving averages of price: a 111-day average and a 350-day average multiplied by 2. When the faster (111-day) average rises up to cross the slower, doubled (350-day × 2) average, that's the signal:

Signal when: 111-day MA ≥ 2 × 350-day MA

The name comes from the fact that 350/111 is approximately 3.15, close to the mathematical constant pi (3.14159…) — a numerological coincidence in the window selection rather than a derivation from pi itself.

The actual track record

This specific cross has occurred near the top of Bitcoin's 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles — a genuinely striking pattern for a purely price-based, parameter-light indicator. That said, "occurred near the top three times" is a sample size of three. A pattern matching three out of three isn't the same statistical claim as a pattern validated across dozens of independent trials, even though both might be described casually as "always worked."

Why this belongs in the fitted-parameter tier anyway

Even though the underlying moving averages are simple and the crossover logic is fully mechanical (no refitting after the fact, unlike Rainbow Chart or Power Law), the specific window lengths (111 and 350 days) were chosen because they produced a compelling historical match, not derived from any economic reasoning about miner behavior, holder psychology, or network fundamentals. That's why this site places it in the same statistical, fitted-parameters tier as Power Law and Rainbow Chart, despite its cleaner three-for-three history.

Related tool

Pi Cycle Top — Live Chart

See both moving averages live, and how close today's reading is to a cross.

Open the live tool→

Two things worth clarifying

There's no established causal mechanism connecting the 111-day and 350-day windows specifically to market tops — the combination was found to fit history well, a different and weaker kind of validation than a model derived from an economic argument. And with only three completed bull cycles to evaluate, there isn't enough history to calculate a meaningful false-signal rate in either direction; the honest answer is the sample is simply too small to say.