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Hash Ribbons

Two moving averages of Bitcoin's network hash rate. When the 30-day average falls under the 60-day, high-cost miners are capitulating and switching off; when it climbs back above, the weakest hands have typically already left.

Data: HashRate, PriceUSD · Coin Metrics community API · computed live in your browser, nothing uploaded

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What this chart shows

Hash rate is Bitcoin's collective mining power, and unlike price, it responds directly to miner economics: when revenue falls below the cost of running a machine, that machine gets switched off, and network hash rate falls. This page tracks two moving averages of hash rate — 30-day and 60-day — a simplified version of the "Hash Ribbons" concept popularized by analyst Charles Edwards.

Ratio = SMA(HashRate, 30) / SMA(HashRate, 60)

Vertical markers on the chart show every historical cross: red when the 30-day average drops below the 60-day (capitulation begins), green when it climbs back above (the shakeout is typically ending).

How to read it

A ratio below 1 means recent hash rate is falling faster than its own trend — the capitulation phase, where the least efficient miners are being priced out. A ratio recovering back above 1 has historically marked the point where the weakest participants have already left the network, which removed a source of forced, non-discretionary selling.

Limitations

This implements only the core moving-average cross, not the full "Hash Ribbons Buy Signal" Charles Edwards originally defined, which adds extra conditions (the 30-day average must also stop making new lows). Treat this as the raw ingredient, not his exact published signal.

Coin Metrics' HashRate is estimated from observed block times and network difficulty, not measured directly — short windows are inherently noisy because block discovery is a random process. Smoothing over 30/60 days reduces but doesn't eliminate that noise.

ASIC efficiency improves every year, so a given hash rate represents a shrinking real electricity cost over time. Comparing absolute hash-rate levels across eras (2018 vs 2024) is less meaningful than comparing the shape of a single cycle's ribbon crosses.

Further reading

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons: Miner Capitulation Signal Explained

FAQ

Why do miners matter for Bitcoin's price?
Because mining costs are paid in fiat, miners are the market's most predictable structural sellers — they must convert some portion of their coin revenue regardless of what they believe about future price. When their economics turn extreme, that forced selling either intensifies or disappears.
How is Hash Ribbons different from the Puell Multiple?
Puell Multiple measures miner revenue in dollars — how rich or poor mining currently is. Hash Ribbons measures actual mining hardware participation — which machines are physically switched on. They usually move together but Hash Ribbons reacts faster to a pure cost-of-production shock, independent of coin price swings.
Does a Hash Ribbons recovery guarantee a bottom is in?
No. It has historically lined up with bottoms in 2015, 2019 and 2020, but the signal can also fire mid-decline if a temporary event (a regional mining ban, a power crisis) forces a hash rate drop unrelated to price. It describes miner capitulation, not price direction.