Bitcoin Rainbow Chart — Live, Refit, and Shown Moving

The same log-log regression behind the internet's favorite Bitcoin meme chart — refit on every load, with the 2021-vintage fit line drawn alongside today's so you can watch the "fair value" band move with your own eyes.

Data: PriceUSD · Coin Metrics community API · computed live in your browser, nothing uploaded

What this chart shows

This page fits Bitcoin's log price against the log of its age in days — the same regression behind the Power Law Corridor page — then slices the fit's residual distribution into eight colored bands, each roughly half a standard deviation wide, styled after the popular public "Rainbow Chart" format. The bands aren't official; the offsets and colors here are ours, derived from the actual residual spread rather than hand-picked to match a specific chart.

log₁₀(Price) = a + b · log₁₀(days since genesis) ± n·σ

The unique thing on this page is the second dashed line: a fit computed using only data through the end of 2021, plotted next to a fit using all data through today. Both are the same regression, run on different cutoffs. The gap between them is the repainting, made visible instead of argued about.

How to read it

The gauge shows where today's price sits relative to the fitted center line, in standard deviations of the residual. Below the center, price is cheap relative to its own long-run log-trend; above it, price is stretched. The legend states the live percentage gap between the 2021-only fit and today's fit at the current date — watch that number over future visits and it will keep changing, which is the point.

Limitations — this is the same trick as the Power Law page, styled differently

This is curve-fitting on price history alone, with no causal mechanism attached to any band boundary. The eight band names are descriptive folklore borrowed from the popular chart format, not derived from anything in the data.

Because the fit recomputes on every load, the bands and the center line drift as new data arrives — exactly what the 2021-vs-today overlay is built to show you directly, rather than asking you to trust that it happens.

If you want the more statistically defensible version of this same regression — residual-quantile bands instead of fixed multiples of standard deviation, and no rainbow styling — see the Power Law Corridor page. Both belong in the same tier for the same reason.

FAQ

Is this the same as the official Bitcoin Rainbow Chart?

Same visual idea — a log-log regression with colored bands — but not the same numbers. The original (blockchaincenter.net) uses hand-picked band offsets last recalibrated years ago. This version refits the regression to the full dataset on every page load and derives band widths from the actual residual distribution, so the bands are never stale — but they do move each time new data arrives, which is disclosed rather than hidden.

Why show a 2021-only fit next to today's fit?

Because that movement is the whole critique of this style of model. A regression that gets redrawn every time it's wrong can't be falsified. Overlaying the 2021-vintage center line against today's shows you, in dollars, how far the "fair value" line has shifted with a few more years of data — no cherry-picking required to see it.

Should I use the band I'm in to time a buy or sell?

No. The bands describe where price sits relative to its own historical log-trend line, nothing more. Every boundary here comes from the same curve-fitting exercise the Power Law and Pi Cycle pages warn about — treat it as a mood ring, not a signal.