What this chart shows
MVRV compares two independently measurable quantities: market cap (price × supply) and realized cap (every coin valued at the price of its last on-chain movement). Realized cap is a proxy for the aggregate cost basis of all holders — something only a transparent blockchain makes computable. Coin Metrics' free community tier doesn't publish the realized cap dollar figure directly, so this page derives it from two fields that are free — market cap divided by Coin Metrics' own published MVRV ratio (CapMrktCurUSD / CapMVRVCur) — which is algebraically identical to the realized cap itself. The Z-Score expresses the gap between the two in units of the historical standard deviation of market cap:
The standard deviation here is expanding (all history up to each date), so past values never repaint when new data arrives.
How to read it
When the score is high, the average holder is sitting on a large unrealized profit — historically the condition under which distribution and cycle tops occurred (2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 all peaked with Z above 7). When the score falls below 0, market cap trades below aggregate cost basis: the market as a whole is underwater, which historically coincided with bear-market floors.
Limitations — read this before using it
The top zone is calibrated on four cycle tops. Four data points are not a statistical sample; the 2021 peak already registered a lower Z than prior cycles, suggesting the threshold may decay as the asset matures and volatility compresses.
Lost coins inflate realized cap's age-weighted base, and ETF custody means large economic transfers now happen off-chain without updating cost basis. The metric describes conditions; it does not predict timing.