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Bitcoin Security Budget: What Happens When Block Rewards Run Out

Chainmeter · ~2 min read

By design, Bitcoin's issuance schedule approaches zero around 2140. At that point, transaction fees have to cover the entire cost of mining security — there's no other funding source built into the protocol. Today, fees still make up only a small single-digit share of total miner revenue (issuance + fees) in most periods, which is exactly what makes the long-run question worth tracking now.

Why security has a budget at all

Bitcoin's security model relies on mining being expensive enough that attacking the network (accumulating enough hash power to rewrite history) costs more than any plausible gain from doing so. That cost is funded entirely by what miners get paid: the block subsidy (newly issued bitcoin) plus transaction fees.

Security Budget (USD) = Issuance Value (USD) + Fee Revenue (USD)

This site reconstructs it from free Coin Metrics fields as IssTotUSD + FeeTotNtv × PriceUSD, the same underlying calculation used for the Puell Multiple.

The long-term question this metric is really about

The block subsidy halves roughly every four years and is scheduled to reach zero around 2140, per Bitcoin's fixed issuance schedule. At that point, by design, 100% of miner revenue — and therefore 100% of network security spending — has to come from transaction fees. Today, fees typically make up a small single-digit percentage of total miner revenue in most periods, spiking higher only during periods of unusually high transaction demand (like fee-market congestion events).

What a low fee share implies, and doesn't

A persistently low fee share doesn't threaten security today — issuance still funds the overwhelming majority of the budget for the foreseeable future, and price appreciation has historically outpaced the halving of the subsidy in USD terms across every completed cycle so far. The long-run question is whether transaction fee demand grows enough over the coming century to replace issuance as the dominant security funder before it disappears — something no current data can settle, since it depends on demand for Bitcoin block space decades from now.

Related tool

Security Budget — Live Chart

See today's fee share of total miner revenue, computed live, tracked against its long-run trend.

Open the live tool

FAQ

Is Bitcoin's security at risk today because fees are low?
Not based on current data — issuance still funds the large majority of miner revenue, and total revenue (in USD terms) has grown across every completed halving cycle so far, even as the subsidy itself shrinks. The concern plays out over decades, on a timescale far removed from today.
Why not just increase the block reward instead of relying on fees?
The 21 million supply cap and the halving schedule are fixed protocol rules rather than adjustable parameters — changing them would require consensus-breaking changes that go against Bitcoin's core value proposition of fixed, predictable monetary policy.
How is security budget different from Puell Multiple?
They share the same underlying revenue calculation, but security budget tracks the fee share of that revenue (a composition question), while Puell Multiple tracks the revenue level relative to its own trailing average (a level question).