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Mayer Multiple Explained: Bitcoin Price vs Its 200-Day Average

Chainmeter · ~2 min read

TL;DR

Mayer Multiple = current price ÷ 200-day simple moving average. Values above 2.4 have marked overextended rallies in the past; values below 1 mean price is trading under its own 200-day trend, a zone linked to deep bear-market conditions.

The simplest formula on this site

Mayer Multiple, named after Bitcoin investor Trace Mayer who proposed it, is deliberately minimal:

Mayer Multiple = Current Price / 200-day Simple Moving Average of Price

That's it — no on-chain data, no realized cap, no miner revenue. It's a pure price-momentum indicator, which places it in a different methodological tier than MVRV or NUPL: it measures where price sits relative to its own recent trend, without reference to any measured economic quantity like cost basis.

The originally proposed band

Trace Mayer's original framework proposed roughly: a multiple above 2.4 signals an overextended, unsustainable rally; a multiple below 1 signals price trading beneath its own trend, a zone that has coincided with deep bear-market accumulation phases in the past. Between those two bands sits a wide "normal" range with no particular signal attached.

Why its simplicity cuts both ways

Because Mayer Multiple only needs a price series, it's fast, transparent, and impossible to break with a missing or paid data field. That same simplicity means it carries no information about actual holder behavior, exchange flows, or aggregate cost basis — two assets could have identical Mayer Multiples while one has healthy on-chain fundamentals and the other doesn't. It's best read alongside cost-basis indicators like MVRV rather than trusted on its own as a read on market health.

Where today's Mayer Multiple sits against the full historical distribution, computed live, is one click away on the Mayer Multiple chart.

Two details worth knowing

The 2.4 upper band isn't a rule handed down from anywhere — Trace Mayer proposed it based on what he'd observed historically, and this site displays it as a fixed, disclosed reference rather than something quietly refit after every cycle. The 200-day window has a similarly practical origin: 200 trading days works out to roughly 200 calendar days for a market that never closes, and it's simply the long-standing convention borrowed from traditional technical analysis, where a 200-day moving average serves as the default long-term trend line across most asset classes.